Energy (It's on my mind)

During the US primary the topic of energy was front-and-center.  With gas prices hitting all time highs during the summer of 2008, it did not take our politicians long to focus our collective attention on the subject of high gases prices and our dependence on oil.  Now as Thanksgiving 2008 approaches gas is hovering around two dollars per gallon (vs four!). I suspect our collective attention may focus on other topics, but maybe not...

Obama has made it clear during the US primary that energy policy reform will be front-and-center during the early part of his administration.  I suspect that if gas prices stay around two dollars per gallon, Obama may experience some level of push-back from other politicians who may not want to enact radical change to address the challenge.  For now, I'm hoping for the best, and that our elected leaders will do what the past elected leaders have not been able to  do, that is, design and implement a comprehensive energy policy to reduce US dependency on imported oil and radically diversify our source for energy for our transportation needs.  And for the record, when I'm suggesting radical change, this is not incremental change such as 10-15% increases in fuel efficiency, but change which would diversify the monopoly oil has on our transportation energy needs, 100 % improvement on efficiency, and placing a cost on environmental affects which comes with using fossil fuels.

The challenge is big and if anyone says otherwise, they either do not understand the scale of the challenge or they are grossly over-simplifying the complexity of the challenge to advance an agenda. 

Some ideas to keep in mind.  Based on 2007 statistics from the Energy Information Administration (www.eia.doe.gov), 96% of the energy for transportation needs in the US come from oil.  US is the greatest consumers of oil, and as we all know, we cannot domestically produce all of our need (even if we drill-baby-drill).  We import 58% to satisfy our collective thirst.  The top four countries we import from are Canada, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico, which represent 63% of the oil imports.  

I suspect that most of us would agree that this addiction to oil is not good.  Independent of the topics related to oil and the environment, we are sole sourced with oil for our transportation needs and this places us in an extremely vulnerable position.

Assuming we want to address this issue, that is, we have the sustainable political will, in addition to industry and citizenry pulling their respective weight, this is a challenge we can address.  Keeping in mind that it has taken us more than a century to get to this point of dependency.  It will take time to unwind the dependency, not a century, but I would suspect 15-20 years, hence the great importance of us having the sustainable will to address the challenge.

There are a number of "quivers" in our bag to help us address the challenge from shifting our reliance from oil to other solutions, be it, electricity, natural gas, and conservation.  

There has been a lot of discussion concerning the idea of leveraging electricity to play an important role for our transportation energy needs.  We can  make electricity from many resources including natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy.  Coal represents 51 %  and nuclear represents 21% of US electricity generation.  We may want to continue to look at coal and nuclear in addition to renewable sources.  Keep in mind that the US posses the largest coal reserves in the world, and we have great nuclear talent and knowledge.  Obviously there are challenges with coal and nuclear, but we should pursue an open and fair discussion on these options.  In the end, the two sources may not work, but there are tremendous advantages leveraging the two sources.  My hope is we have a constructive debate on the two sources vs. getting caught up in demagoguery and fear. 

One last thought.  Conservation will play an import role, especially for what we can do now.  Obviously the long term solution will require more than conservation, but the biggest near term impact is conservation.  For the past three  years, oil consumption in the US has decreased.  This is largely due to conservation and efficiency efforts.  Here is a thought on conservation.  What we can do today to help conserve oil is the simple act of slowing down.  Consumer Reports conducted a test and determined that driving at 65 mph vs. 75 mph results in about 16 % improved gas mileage at highway speeds.  If you are driving about 200 miles per tank for highway driving, slowing down will save about one gallon of gas per tank.  Million of us saving a gallon adds up! 

No question, the energy challenge facing us is big.  All will play a part to address the challenge (government, industry and citizen).  Though gas prices are falling, my fingers are crossed that our leaders will have the will to radically address this issue.  Until then, let's drive a little slower, and if needed, remind our leaders to do the right thing.

Roger Mehta

A Disruptive Technology--Google Docs

I just finished a great book titled "The Innovator's Dilemma" by Clayton Christensen.  The book addresses the challenge facing established companies to stay on top of their industries when faced with certain technologies which disruptive their business, or worse, destroy their business.  Christensen outlines a number of examples of dominating companies ruined due to "disruptive technology".  Christensen outlines the common elements of disruptive technology, how to spot disruptive technology, and advice on how to navigate through a disruptive technology shift.

My goal is to summarize the common elements which make up disruptive technology, and to propose that "Google Docs" is a disruptive technology which represents an amazing risk to Microsoft.  

Christensen explains in his book that disruptive technologies initially establish products which underperform when compared to the established product offered by the dominating company. Christensen also writes that disruptive technologies attract a small customer base which see value in the product.  Another very important idea concerning disruptive technologies is the rate of innovation relative to market need.  Another way to think of this, disruptive technologies get better-and-better but the performance needs of the mainstream customer stays relatively static.  So, as disruptive technologies improve, disruptive technologies' features match customer expectation.

Here is an interesting example.  "Google Docs" is an application which includes word processing features, in addition to features to develop spreadsheets and presentations.  Google Docs is an alternative to Microsoft's Word, Excel and PowerPoint.  Google Docs' feature set is small when compared to Microsoft's offering, BUT, Google Docs is FREE and Google is improving and innovating quickly.  I'm most familiar with the word processing application.  There are a number of shortcomings (one is not being able to view your document easily before you print.  Also, the number of fonts are limited compared to Microsoft Word). Despite the short comings of Google Docs, it is an application I can see folks using who don't want to purchase Microsoft Word at $200.  If you are going to use a word processor for general report writing, then buying Microsoft Word may not make sense.   For example, most students word processing needs can be satisfied by Google Docs. I would not be surprised that in the near future, the "basic" functionality we see in Microsoft Word will be developed in Google Docs  (the ability to easily review a document before printing, more fonts, interoperability with other applications).  And as Christensen has pointed out, technology innovates at a rate faster than market needs, so Google Docs has the great potential of "innovating up" to what the mainstream market expects.  

An idea to keep in mind.  Microsoft's "Business Division" revenue for FY2008 was $20 billion ,about a third of the companies total revenue.  Business Division includes revenue from Microsoft Word, Excel and PowerPoint.  I'm not suggesting that Google Docs in the near term is going to affect this revenue stream, but Google Docs is "knocking" on the door, and when Google is knocking on the door's of their competitors, it is generally not a friendly visit.  Also, Google Docs is operating system (OS) independent so in addition to not needing to purchase Microsoft Word, Excel and Powerpoint, there will be no need to purchase Microsoft's OS (oh boy...).

Check out Christensen's book, a very interesting read.  

Roger Mehta

The Internet Browser (Executive Summary)

It has been almost 15 years since Netscape introduced the first commercially successful Internet browser called Navigator.  During the last 15 years, Netscape has vanished from the Internet scene and companies such as Google and Facebook rule the roost (and are managed by folks who were in middle school or  high school when Netscape was king!).   No question, a lot has changed in 15 years, but the underlining understanding of the browser has not changed.  

The browser is the ubiquitous software application we use to interface with the Internet.  You may be using Microsoft's Internet Explorer (most used browser application) or Mozilla's Firefox, Apple's Safri or Google's relatively new browser application called Chrome.  They all do the same basic function, which is to allow us to access the power of the Internet.  

The browser application allows us to view websites, photos, movies and play music.  For example, the browser application is designed to process software files which contain the data which represents photos.  A very common photo software file is "JPEG".  The browser application is designed to process or "read" the JPEG software file and then display the photo on your screen.  

The browser application is also designed to allow us to add other programs to expand the usefulness of the browser application.  The add-on programs are known  as plug-ins.  Common plug-ins are Adobe's Acrobate and Adobe's Flash.  Adobe's Acrobate allows us to view documents written in a format called "PDF" and Adobe's Flash allows us to view animation and video.  In short, the continuous development of plug-ins expands the functionality of the browser application.   

Another important function of the software browser is the ability to interpret a computer language called Hypertext Markup Language (HTML).  When we are viewing a page from the Internet, that page is written in HTML, which the browser interprets and then displays on the screen.  The browser also understands a protocol called Hypertext Transfer Protocol (HTTP). Since the browser understands HTTP, the protocol allows the browser to communicate with other "machines" which are part of the Internet such as other computers,servers and printers. 

A lot has changed since Netscape first introduced its browser application Navigator, but the underlying technology such as plug-ins, HTML and HTTP is still widely used by common browser applications we use today.

Raj Mehta

Career Management (Not easy for most)

I'm reading a great biography about Dwight David Eisenhower ("Ike") by Michael Korda. Ike was the supreme commander of the Allied Forces during World War II. Ike commanded the largest force of men and women in the history of warfare. In addition to his service during World War II, Ike was a two-term US president. Though the intent of the biography is not to be a book about career management, the biography does provide great insight into Ike's career and provides an example of how to manage one's career.

Ike knew very early what he wanted to do with his career. In the biography, Korda presents a story of Ike taking his freshman oath as a West Point cadet. The oath stuck Ike "deep in his heart and soul." At that moment, Ike found his calling. I suspect that most of us during our freshman year in college did not have a clear vision of our future career, but knowing what we what from our career is essential in managing it. Coming up with the answer may be a challenge. If you are one of the lucky ones like Ike, the answer will come very early in your life. But for most, discovering the answer may take time. For most, 5-10 years into your career, more for some of us. Discuss the topic with your close allies such as parents, friends and teachers. Understand that the answer may not come easily, but knowing to ask the question is half the effort. With effort and time the answer will come.

The second element in managing your career is identifying mentors to help provide guidance and objective feedback. Ike had three great mentors in his career-- General John Pershing, General Douglas MacArthur, and General George Marshall. One could only wish for stellar mentors like these! Ike's mentors were willing to provide guidance and feedback, and most importantly, Ike was open to learning from them. In addition, he had a keen eye for searching out knowledge and ideas to better himself. The last element is the obvious one-- work hard. As the saying goes, "luck comes to the prepared." Ike is an example of hard work and preparation, and continuing to work hard though his effort is not immediately recognized. Though Ike would have performed his work in a vacuum, Ike craved recognition for his effort. Though Ike thought no one was noticing his early efforts, folks were watching him. A lesson to us: always keep in mind that great talent does not go unnoticed too long. With time, cream always rises to the top.

Managing your career is no easy task, but there are common elements which make up successful career management as exemplified by Ike's career. Know what you want; be on the lookout for mentors (and in a frame of mind to accept constructive feedback); work hard (real hard).

Raj